ptw doggie dogs

[Systematrix]

well i decided to stay here but without shitting into kodiaks thread . my picks last week went 5-2 including a money line winner with oregon . so here are my picks for this week hope to have another nice saturday.

1 unit troy state +14
0.3 unit troy state moneyline +470
1.5 unit cincy +7
and 0.5 unit cincy moneyline +250
0.5 unit iowastate +7 (buy)
0.3 unit iowastate moneyline +233
0.5 unit smu +19

afew more will be added,,,tonight maybe i dont know . good look everyone. bye.

 

[Systematrix]

my final plays for this week no more after this and see you all on saturday. good luck. pay to win.

michstate +7 one unit
michstate +238 half unit
misstate +14 (buy) 1unit
misstate +465 0.3unit

 

[Systematrix]

well here is one favorite after all these dogs byu-1.5 and maybe one total to follow later this week. good luck.

 

[Systematrix]

that byu pick was for 1 unit and im now adding one more unit on byu -1 at olympic. that makes byu my biggest play of the week. i will add one total for sure later this week but for now i have the following plays , wuick recap:


1 unit troy state +14
0.3 unit troy state moneyline +470
1.5 unit cincy +7
and 0.5 unit cincy moneyline +250
0.5 unit iowastate +7 (buy)
0.3 unit iowastate moneyline +233
0.5 unit smu +19
michstate +7 one unit
michstate +238 half unit
misstate +14 (buy) 1unit
misstate +465 0.3unit
byu -1.5 one unit
byu -1 one unit.

check this out guys. byu won 17 straight revenge games yes seventeen straight! including two this season.last year they were hammered by af its payback time. much better defense and aurforce not as good as lyear.

any feedback is welcome. paytowin.

 

[Systematrix]

why cincy 1.5 unit?!? well last week cincy played in that flat spot sandwich situation and they barely edged temple but this week its miami ohio in flat spot.comming off upset win at cost,facing nondivisional cicny this week and looking ahead to divisional akron next week. teams winning at colostate are 0-6 ats in fllowing week in last 3 years and divisional rivals are 0-7 ats and 0-5 su befor facing akron. miami ohio won in taughspot last week third road game in a row and i expect them to slow down this week. cincy better running team this year. better defense than last year as well.

 

[jwunderdog]

PTW, I am interested in the BYU game, is Berry playing?

 

[Systematrix]

jwunderdog, he is listed as ``out indefinately``but it looks like he will play. also byu's rb Marcus Whalen is back from an injury and should be at 80% against airforce. he had just a few carries vs stanford. but i think the key in this matchup is the BYU defense.byu played gtech and new mexico last year and the average score was byu 17: opp 24 and this year it wass 17:10 thats 2 td better defensively per game. aforce played against northwestern and wyoming last year and the avrage score was 39.5:18.5 but only 28.5:25.5 this year.i think byu wins this one.

 

[Systematrix]

stil waiting for that total!|but i will also add tulane +30 as a 1.5 unit play. this team can pass and texas is not extremely good against the pass. i also like the turnover ratio for tulane in last two games 1 for and 11 against. last year texas crushed tulane and that was the turning point for tulane. since then they are 9-3 su and 9-1-1 ats (4-1 ats as dogs and 6-1-1 ats in revenge games). they will not beat texas but i think thay will work their asses off against texas on saturday. texas lost as big fav two weeks ago and then followed that loss with a convincing win against a very bad rice team. just enough to get cocky again looking ahead to a possibly tight game versus kansas state. 30pts is too much here i think.?good luck. pay to win.

 

[Systematrix]

recap :

byu 2 units (1 unit byu-1.5 and 1 unit byu-1)
tulane +30 for 1.5 units
cincy +7 for 1.5 units
cincy +250 for 0.5units
troy state +14 for 1 unit
troy state +470 for 0.3unit
michigan state +7 for 1 unit
michigan state +238 for 0.5 unit
mississ.state +14 buy for 1 unit
mississ.state +465 for 0.3 unit
iowa state +7 buy for 0.5 unit
iowa state +233 for 0.3 unit
southern methodist +19 for 0.5 unit.

note``i was looking hard at that ttech versus mississipi game and i will hit the over hard with the total no higher than 61-63, i think it will be right there,...last year they played a 70 points game. this year their offenses are as good as last year and their defenses are worst. last year texats tech averaged 40:21 vs smu,nmx,ncst, and this year vs these very same teams they average 40:29. mississipi played vandy emphis and monroe last year and the average score was 38:19 mississippi and this year vs same three teams the score is 39:26. so i like the over but i will not go for it if the total is higher than 63.5 thats too high.

any opinions ?

pay to win

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Tulane is no slouch. They can put the numbers up. The problem with them is that they can get scored on as well. Will Texas win? Probably. Will they win by 30? I am inclined to think they won't.

Thanks for the insight.

 

[Systematrix]

biggamesonly, thanks. hope we are right. i just saw your writeup on nebraska and i tend to agree. my numbers say that nebraska has the biggest running edge in all college games this week. i hope you got them earlier this week as they are now favored by 10.5 points. nebraska defense last year versus psu,utst,okst = 25.5 pts allowed per game. this year vs same opponents = 8 points allowed per game. good luck.

pinnacle has that ttech vs mississippi total at 64.5 and i don't like it. no play there.

 

[NASDAQ]

Like most of your plays, but one thing needs to be straightened out.

Texas not very good against the pass??? WHAT!!! Are you kidding me?

NM St 75 yds
Arkansas 173 yds
Rice 23 yds

Not the stiffest of competition, but the secondary on this team is one of the elite in the country. Arkansas had a mobile QB that caused havoc on the D and made it possible for him to scramble around and find gaps. Losman is strong, but he will not go anywhere running the ball against the Horns. Good QB, but he is good against much worse teams. TCU, Northwestern St, Mississippi St, and Army.

Too many points for me to lay on this one with my boys, but Tulane passing game will not be so effective on Saturday. Texas Tech is the team that scares me passing the ball in the Big XVII.

 

[Systematrix]

nasdaq thanks for the opinion. i said they are not extremely good. we all know they are good but not as good as the numbers are telling us here.

rice is a 51 running att. and 14 att. passing team. they only had 36 pass yds against houston and 61 against duke.

arkansas had 173 pass. yds against texas on only 18 pass. attempts. they had 183 passing yds against tulsa and 183 against ntexas on 20 and 23 attempts. they too average 2x more rushing than passing attempts.

nmxst is another 52 rush. and 18 passing att team and they do not pass well against anyone.

so these three teams can not be compared to tulane (43 pass att per game and 29 rushing att per game, 300+ pass yds in all 4 games this season).

350 vs army (most p.yds allowed by army in whole last season and 3 games this season)

349 vs missst (2nd most allowed by misst in 15+gms dating back to last year)

303 vs tcu (most-by far allowed by tcu this season and most in 7 gms dating bck to last y.)

texas is only 1-5 ats when allowing 130+ passing yards. not great but hey, goodl uck to you and thanks for the input i appreciate it.

 

[Systematrix]

last play: uconn +21 for 1 unit.i think uconn has what it ttakes to stay within the n0 in this one. they are 19-4 ats in last 23 and they are stil underrated here,.vtech is good, very good, and i give them the rushing edge here but i think uconn keeps it close.last time they faced vt they were in the middle of a 7 game losing streak and they got crushed. but they are not the same team any more. they play close games vs top opposition and they crush weak teams.21 pts is alot here i think. good luck everyone.pay to win.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

ptw:

I was thinking about looking at UConn as well. I'll take a look at it and if I see something I will chime in.

 

[jam2580]

PTW: What is you opinion on the SDSU game. I have them as one of my dawgs. GL

 

[Systematrix]

bgo: sounds good man. thank you and good luck.

ntexes : sorry my friend but i don't know a lot about these two teams. ucla not very good, kinda up and down team and sdsts not great either. i think the spread in this game is based on their head to head history. good luck.

 

[Systematrix]

ntexes i did some research and here s what i found about that game. first, myratings tell me that you have a lot of value going with sdstte here. sdstate got crushed nby ucla last year but they were bad at that point losing six of their 7 games before going to ucla. since then they are 7-5su and 6-4 ats and in the process they won three of their 5 revenge games including two big underdog wins. this year sdstate played against ewash ohst utep and samford and all these teams had there worst game of the season against sdstate. sdst looks solid and i wish you good luck ,.

 

[Systematrix]

well these dogs will either kick my ass or make me rich on saturday. i know i said two times no more picks but i will give another one a try and who knows maybe i add another one.

everyone and there mother like hawaii, hell no big surprise but i will go against the public here. why? well some things never change. i.e. these two teams. hawaii is all about their pass. game, rice is all about running the football. rice is 3-1 su and 4-0 ats against hawaii last 4 years and heres the deal about these four games. rice 62.5 runn.att for 284.5 yards and hawaii 19 r.att. for 60.5 yds. hawaii 55.5 pass. att for 346.5 pass yards and rice 12 pass. att for 99 yds. hawaii 10 more turnovers in these 4 games.nothing changed this year. rice runs 51 times a game and passes 14 times enough to outrun all their opponents but texas. hawaii passing the ball 55 times, running 21 times. outpassing all their opponents. hawaii 12 to's and rice 7. give me rice +22 points for 1 unit.

 

[Systematrix]

minny-1.5 for 1 unit. last year psu had a huge edge over minny in all of my capping tools but this year it is another story. psu not good running or defending against the run. minny very good in that departement.minny played tulsa troy ohio and laffayette and every one of these four teams had there worst game of this young season against minny. meanwhile temple bcollege and nebraska had their best performances of the season, especially running the ball, against psu.

navy pk 1 unit. once again i will go with a seemingly better running team. i know rutgers plasy well against navy but this year i think navy wins. their running more, and more effectively (57 attempts vs rutgers 41 attempts, 291 ryards vs rutgers 119, and finally 5.1 ypc versus rutgers 2.9 ypc). navy played against vmi, tcu (i really like how they played against tcu) and emichigan and all three of their opponents had their worst game, worst run.off and def against navy. on the other side rutgers played buffalo, mich,.state and army and all three teams had their best games of the season when they faced rutgers.